Assessments of an issuer’s credit quality
The rating agencies have been criticized for being too slow to react to changes in the credit quality of an issuer, leading to serially correlated rating patterns and limiting the value of ratings as a risk management tool. As a reaction, Moody’s decided to put its rating process under review, and acquired KMV to be able to provide investors with additional, marketbased assessments of an issuer’s credit quality. The feedback from market participants was surprising. Since investors themselves tend to use spreads and spread volatility as indicators for credit risk, the vast majority does not want Moody’s or the other rating agencies to switch to a more marketbased approach when assessing the credit quality of an issuer. There is really a need for, according to the feedback, more transparency with regard to the rating process. This would allow investors to use rating agency information in their risk management most efficiently.
Perceived credit quality and risk exposure
For purposes of risk management bonds are often grouped according to agency ratings based on the assumption that bonds with similar ratings tend to show a high degree of comovement. Breger et al. (2003) examine whether the correlation between individual bonds increases if they are grouped by implied ratings, that is by spread classes rather than by agency ratings. The rationale for this would be that market valuations are a better indicator for the drivers of credit spread changes, namely perceived credit quality and risk exposure, than are agency ratings. In their empirical study they find that bonds of the same spread class are more similar than bonds with the same rating from a risk/return perspective. Breger et al. (2003) conclude that the classification of bonds based on market data provides a more reliable basis for modeling return relationships than does a classification by agency ratings. However, one has to note that the motivation behind this study differs significantly from the rating agencies’ approach. The objective is not to predict default risk, but rather to improve the classification of corporate borrowers and provide a basis for reliable spread risk forecasts.
Loans are particularly exposed to currency movements
Being one of the most global sectors, the automotive sector is particularly exposed to currency movements. Significant changes of major exchange rates therefore may have a material impact on earnings. Yet, some manufacturers are better positioned than others due to a number of factors that do not only relate to natural or derivatives hedging. Awell-filled model pipeline, restructuring plans, cost reduction issues and a high degree of flexibility in the use and sourcing of raw materials and intermediate goods may outweigh negative effects due to currency fluctuations. With regard to transaction risk, those companies that have no foreign exchange exposure or are hedged, either naturally or through derivatives, clearly have the lowest risk. In terms of translation risk, companies whose assets and liabilities are well matched have the lowest risk and will have the lowest volatility of operating profits.
During the 2002/03 US dollar weakness, revenues and to a lesser extent operating profits of most European industrial issuers suffered significantly due to substantial US operations. However, exposure to US markets varies across industries.
Credit and the appreciation of the local currency
The third effect of currency fluctuations refers to the fact that the appreciation of the local currency attracts imports from abroad. Usually, the import competition effect only becomes apparent, when the currency appreciation has been sustained for some time. While companies are quick to cite the impact of exchange rate movements on revenues, profits and liabilities, the longer term effects with regard to market share and prices are hard to quantify.
Ultimately increased competition through cheaper imports can cause earnings erosion in the domestic markets. On the other hand, European car makers benefited from the weak Euro in 2000 and 2001 through increased exports to the United States.
Although in the age of globalization, currency fluctuations may have an impact on most companies earnings, some sectors are more vulnerable to the currency issue than others. In general, the industrial, and here most notably the capital goods sector, and the automotive sector are particularly exposed. Especially from a longer perspective, the impact varies on the company level, when (natural) hedges are taken into account. While the European utilities and telecom sector have a relatively low exposure to the US dollar, they are more impacted by fluctuations of emerging market currencies.