Don’t be affraid of credit changes
Through openness and a future orientation an organization can begin to take a realistic look at its culture. By doing this self-analysis, it begins the process of healing the wounds caused by a past orientation. The bad news is that the journey toward openness and a more positive paradigm takes time. The good news is that you can start right now. And you don’t have to go through the experience alone. You can use the Partnership Continuum as a guide to increase your Partnering Intelligence and get you to your destination.
Change is part of our daily lives. Our bodies go through a normal growth and maturity cycle as we change from children to adolescents and then to adults. As our bodies develop, we also mature both mentally and emotionally. Change doesn’t end with our bodies and minds. It is a dynamic that affects our relationships as well. And to add to the complexity, people are changing in different ways and at different rates all the time. As Heraclitus noted, there is nothing permanent except change. With all this change occurring around us, it’s helpful to remember that while you can’t always control change, you can control how you respond to it.
Downgrading your loan is a good solution
The addition of the individual contributions to expected excess return in Experience yields an expected 1-year excess return of 88.2 bp for A-rated corporate bonds with a maturity of 5-years. This is significantly below the initial spread of 100 bps. The difference reflects the fact that a downgrade is more probable for A-rated corporate bonds than an upgrade, and that the associated spread changes are not symmetric. The magnitude of spread widenings due to downgrades is usually much higher than the spread tightening after rating upgrades. It is interesting to note that among investment grade bonds the ratio of upgrades to downgrades is most favorable for Baa-rated bonds. However, in the case of a downgrade these bonds often suffer massive price declines, because they fall below investment
grade levels.
Credit affected by fluctuations of exchange rates
Credit spreads are also affected by fluctuations of exchange rates, with the USD/EUR exchange rate being the most influential one. The depreciation of the dollar that started in 2002 could potentially affect European corporate issuers if it slows economic growth and reduces demand for their products.
However, a rise of the euro against the dollar could move the ECB to cut rates and thus would impact credit spreads via the interest rate channel. The dollar weakness is mainly due to a large current account deficit, low levels of interest rates and slowing equity capital inflows. Of course, sustained fluctuations of exchange rates can impact the business of corporate borrowers as well as financial institutions. While this does not necessarily lead to significant changes in credit quality and subsequent rating actions in the short term, especially companies with a weak financial profile may find the currency issue an unwelcome challenge. A forward-looking active currency management may be based on three main factors: US inflation, European growth and comments from policymakers. However, many companies are not able or willing to manage their currency exposure actively. In this case, significant changes in exchange rates will affect companies in three ways: via transaction risk, translation risk and import competition risk.